A powerful early March storm that could cause a tornado outbreak in the South on Tuesday may also bring significant moisture to parts of Minnesota.
Will it be raining? Mixed precipitation? Heavy snowfall? That’s where things get dicey, but there are indications that the looming system may pack a punch.
The European, American, and Canadian ensembles, which account for a wide range of possible outcomes and take the average, all agree that southeastern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities, could see minor snowfall.
The models differ in terms of how much snow accumulates and how far no7rth and west it reaches.
The deterministic models, which use the European, American, and Canadian options, produce higher snowfall totals. Of course, these cannot be fully trusted just yet, but they do indicate the system’s potential.
The National Weather Service in the Twin Cities advises “caution in buying into snowfall maps that display double-digit snowfall totals on social media.”
Why the hesitancy? “A transition to snow is looking more likely, but it’s too early to say whether or not snowfall will be significant,” the NWS Twin Cities explained.
Timing and temperatures will be critical in determining snowfall potential. The storm track should also be closely monitored. Just 24 hours ago, the models kept the track further south and east, resulting in significantly lower precipitation totals across most of Minnesota.
It is still possible that the storm will barely miss southeastern counties while hammering Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin.
The Twin Cities have received 16.1 inches of snow since December 1. That’s about two feet below normal for this time of year, so we could be in for a March snowstorm or two before spring takes up permanent residence in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.
