The countryside of the U.S. is colored on the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s hazard map to show different amounts of extreme weather danger.
It’s very dangerous in some counties in the Bay Area, which are painted dark red. It is thought that they are even more at risk than the towns that were just destroyed by Hurricane Helene, which are still rated a lighter blue.
The agency says that five of the nine counties in the Bay Area are in the 99th percentile for natural disaster risks. This means they are in the top 15 of all 3,007 counties in the country.
The fourth, fifth, and eighth most dangerous places in California are Alameda, Santa Clara, and Contra Costa counties, in that order. Now, one county is doing things to make sure the safety of its people is better.
During last week’s meeting of a multi-agency policy board, Contra Costa County’s Emergency Services Manager Rick Kovar said, “Blue is good, red is bad.” He was referring to FEMA’s map. It’s just not possible to lower the risk in that county because of its natural features. The only thing that might work is to pave the whole thing.
The county’s 2024 Hazard Mitigation Plan is an effort to be ready for a disaster. It’s a detailed study that lists all the ways people could be hurt, including the three biggest natural disasters that could happen in the East Bay: earthquakes, wildfires, and landslides caused by heavy rain.
Last winter, when atmospheric rivers dumped heavy rain on California over and over again, that destructive power was on full show. It caused the first major flooding, landslides, and mudslides to be reported in Contra Costa County since 2017. Scientists think that as normal temperatures rise around the world, severe storms will happen more often and be stronger.
The 520-page document for the county is updated every five years and includes dozens of plans for how local leaders can help protect the 1.1 million people who live there from future disasters.
“This is where emergency planners get to preach,” Kovar said. “Our plans have to include how we’re going to respond, build resilience, and mitigate those effects.” “This is just a plan for how we should do that.”
There is, however, a major weakness in these plans: the county’s Office of Emergency Services, which is run by the Sheriff’s Office, only has four full-time emergency management positions and three staff members who plan, organize, and maintain the Community Warning System.
This was one of the main issues pointed out in a recent civil grand jury report that said alert protocols were not good enough. That list doesn’t even come close to the 21 approved jobs in Alameda County, the 29 people working in Santa Clara County, or the 17 emergency managers in Sonoma County, which is only half the size of Contra Costa.
County Administrator Monica Nino said that while officials are looking into how to use AI and other technologies to help with disaster response, they will need more resources in the big urban area where the number of households is expected to grow by 44% by 2050.
“Those people are doing a lot of heavy lifting,” Nino said. “That doesn’t even count our fully engaged sheriff’s leadership team.” Nino also said that on Nov. 12, the Board of Supervisors will decide whether to pay for an outside study of its own emergency management functions. “We need to take a look at the organizational structure because a small but strong team can get a lot done.”
While the staffing study is still going on, FEMA and the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services approved the county’s base plan and a report for the Diablo Water District at the end of September.
This is needed to be able to get the next round of non-emergency disaster funding for projects that reduce damage, according to Beatriz Portillo, who is the senior emergency planning coordinator.
Contra Costa County now hopes to finish and resubmit its whole plan for final approval by the end of the month so that it can meet the January dates.
The multi-jurisdictional hazard mitigation plan for Santa Clara County was approved by FEMA in February. In March 2022, Alameda County’s present five-year plan was also approved.
The county’s Hazard Mitigation Plan says that earthquakes, wildfires, coastal flooding, and heat waves could cause $575 million in economic losses every year.
This is based on the estimated average damage that these events do to homes, businesses, and infrastructure like roads, railroads, and utility lines. These multimillion-dollar numbers don’t fully take into account things like lost business, people having to move, or long-term effects on the environment.
Elena Givental, an adjunct professor of anthropology, geography, and environmental studies at Cal State East Bay, said that the county’s plan is the best way for the area to move forward.
However, she doesn’t think that means the area is fully prepared because of rare events like earthquakes and changes in the weather patterns caused by El Nino and La Nina, which make the weather in the Bay Area either above or below average.
That’s why, she says, schooling is even more important for families to protect themselves, no matter what natural disaster happens first.
Givental said, “because of how people are, if (a natural disaster) doesn’t happen again, it’s as if it never happened.” You have to work hard to remember and pay attention to everything. But I think the best way to warn neighbors is probably to scare them a little while giving them good advice on how to behave. That is, to tell them why they should be scared.