Tottenham hope a successful scalp in the Carabao Cup semifinals could springboard them to a push up the Premier League table as Spurs host league leaders Liverpool in the first leg.
Ange Postecoglou’s side has dropped to 12th place in the league after five consecutive defeats, but the Carabao Cup has put them in contention for their first trophy since 2008.
Spurs face a daunting task in this regard, as they are up against a team that is not only at the top of the Premier League table, but also leads the Champions League standings.
The Reds were held to a 2-2 draw by Manchester United last time out in a disappointing blip, but on the whole, they’ve been truly sensational, appearing to be running away with the league title while also remaining in contention on other fronts.
Tottenham vs. Liverpool prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean: Liverpool (-160 on BetMGM)
- Score prediction: Tottenham 1-3 Liverpool
The last time these two teams met, about a month ago, they played one of the craziest, silliest games of the season, with Liverpool winning 6-3 behind four different scorers.
While that match exists in its own little world, it teaches many valuable lessons. First and foremost, Ange Postecoglou simply refuses to play in any other way than “his” style, which is to cause deliberate chaos.
Unfortunately for him, Spurs do not have the necessary healthy players in midfield or defense to make this approach work.
Instead, it gives the opponent numerous chances on the break, and Liverpool is one of the best in the world at capitalizing on such opportunities.
Even if Mohamed Salah is rested, they should have enough talent to make Spurs pay early in this two-game series.
| BetMGM (USA) |
|
| Tottenham win | +360 |
| Draw | +360 |
| Liverpool win | -160 |
| Both teams to score |
Y: -275 N: +195 |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals |
O: -145 U: +100 |
| Liverpool -0.5 goals |
-185 |
| Tottenham +0.5 goals |
+125 |
Tottenham vs. Liverpool match facts
- Date: Wednesday, January 8, 2025
- Kickoff Time: 8 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
- Location: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (London, England)
- Referee: John Brooks
- Last meeting: Tottenham 3-6 Liverpool (Dec. 22, 2024 | Premier League)
Tottenham vs. Liverpool best bet
- Pick: Liverpool over 2.5 total goals
- Odds: +105 (BetMGM)
If Arne Slot rests 32-year-old Mohamed Salah, Liverpool will be without a player who has put himself in contention for both Premier League MVP and Ballon d’Or awards.
However, given how these teams match up, it should make little difference whether he sees the field.
Tottenham has conceded the fifth-most big chances of any Premier League team this season, and opponents are converting them at a 41% rate, also the fifth-highest in the league.
If you focus on matches since the beginning of November, Spurs have conceded 46 big chances, second only to relegation-threatened Southampton.
Even if Salah rests, it’s difficult to imagine the Spurs’ injured backline changing the game against the ruthless Premier League leaders.
Even though the betting market has completely neutralized the odds for this pick, it’s still worth a shot at around even money.
Tottenham vs. Liverpool prop bet
- Pick: Liverpool over 19+ total shots
- Odds: -105 on FanDuel
Liverpool recorded an incredible 5.63 xG on 24 shots against Spurs the last time they played. Salah was responsible for seven of those shots and set up three more for teammates.
Even without him, Liverpool’s abundance of attacking talent should keep these levels high.
Tottenham recently conceded 20 shots to Manchester United in a chaotic match, Nottingham Forest had 10 shots with only 30% possession, and Newcastle had 14 attempts with only 43% possession.
Tottenham are without Micky van de Ven, Cristian Romero, Destiny Udogie, Ben Davies, and goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario due to injuries.
Given Radu Dragusin and Archie Gray’s illnesses, one or both of Tottenham’s starting center-backs in this match could be youth players or repurposed midfielders.
While a big early Liverpool lead would normally cause the Reds to shut up shop before reaching this threshold, the fact that this is a two-legged match means they will be motivated to keep scoring, hoping to make the second leg a formality.
